[SMM Steel Market Morning News] 25% Tariff on Imported Steel and Aluminum Effective from March 12

★Macro★

01 ★★ 

The closing meeting of the third session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held at the Great Hall of the People at 3:00 PM on Tuesday, March 11, 2025.

The closing meeting of the third session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held at the Great Hall of the People at 3:00 PM on Tuesday, March 11, 2025.

02★★★

US Commerce Secretary: 25% Tariff on Imported Steel and Aluminum to Be Imposed Starting March 12

The White House announced on February 10 that President Trump signed a document declaring a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the US. Additionally, the new measures eliminate the tariff-free quotas and exemptions for certain trading partners.

On March 9 local time, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the 25% tariff policy on all steel and aluminum imports to the US, as promised by President Trump, will take effect as planned on March 12.

★Industry and Downstream★

01 ★★ 

Environmental Protection-Driven Production Restrictions Lead to Slight Decline in Iron Ore Concentrates Production

According to SMM data, the domestic mine capacity utilisation rate last week was 54.0%, down 1.4 percentage points WoW. Iron ore concentrates production was 721,000 mt, down 18,000 mt WoW. Additionally, mine concentrate inventory increased by 10,000 mt to 200,000 mt.

Last week, iron ore concentrates production continued to show a slight downward trend. Due to the impact of major meetings, production at some beneficiation plants and explosives supply were restricted in certain regions, with the main reductions in concentrates occurring in Hebei and parts of Liaoning. Looking ahead to next week, with the conclusion of the major meetings, beneficiation plants previously affected are expected to gradually resume normal production. Coupled with rising temperatures, some northern beneficiation plants are also expected to resume production. Overall, iron ore concentrates production is expected to increase slightly.

02 ★★★  

[SMM Independent Beneficiation Plant Operating Rate] Spring Holiday Impact & Overseas Heavy Rain Lead to Slight Decline in Iron Ore Concentrates Production

According to an SMM survey, the total production of 26 independent beneficiation plants in China in February 2025 was approximately 1.67 million mt, down 320,000 mt from January. The capacity utilisation rate was 37.23%, down 2.84 percentage points MoM. Entering March, the impact of the Spring Holiday and overseas heavy rain has subsided, and beneficiation plants previously affected by production disruptions have resumed normal operations. Iron ore concentrates production is expected to increase slightly. According to SMM tracking, overall blast furnace pig iron production in March continues to rise, which may provide some support for iron ore concentrates demand. Market transactions are expected to improve, and the overall capacity utilisation rate of independent beneficiation plants in March is likely to increase.

03★★ 

SMM February Independent Pellet Plant Operating Rate Increased Slightly; March May See a Slight Decline

According to SMM survey results, the operating rate of 33 sample independent pellet plants in February 2025 was 59.36%, up 4 percentage points MoM from January. The regions with increased operating rates were mainly Anhui, Jilin, and Hebei, while the regions with decreased rates were primarily Yunnan and Liaoning.

In March, the operating rate of independent pellet plants is expected to decline slightly due to two main reasons:

1. Environmental protection-driven production restrictions. During the Two Sessions, environmental protection measures led to the shutdown of several large pellet plants in Hebei for about a week. 2. Weak demand. Since late February, pig iron production at steel mills has decreased rather than increased, leading to insufficient orders for pellet plants and significant inventory pressure. Some pellet plants plan to halt production to reduce inventory if orders remain weak in March.

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕[Shenzhen Second-Hand Housing Transactions Have Risen for Five Consecutive Weeks, Surpassing 1,800 Units in a Single Week]According to the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, in the 10th week of 2025 (March 3–March 9), Shenzhen recorded 1,812 second-hand housing transactions (including self-service), up 11.6% WoW. The association noted that the second-hand housing market has been steadily recovering recently, with transaction volumes rising for five consecutive weeks. Consumer willingness to purchase homes has been increasing, with weekly transactions exceeding 1,800 units. As of March 10, 2025, there were 67,662 valid second-hand housing listings for sale in Shenzhen, an increase of 1,917 units WoW.

⭕[JAC: February Total Automobile Sales Reached 26,900 Units, Down 9.17% YoY]JAC (600418.SH) announced that total automobile sales in February reached 26,900 units, down 9.17% YoY, including 1,041 passenger NEVs, down 40.34% YoY.

⭕[CPCA: China's Passenger Car Market Sales in March Expected to Maintain Strong Growth, NEVs to Be the Main Driver]The CPCA released its March outlook for the national passenger car market, stating that industries have quickly resumed normal operations after the Chinese New Year holiday, leading to rapid MoM growth in production and sales in March. Due to significant changes in the external environment and the emergence of unexpected multipolar phenomena, which are conducive to stable consumption trends, China's passenger car market sales in March 2025 are expected to maintain strong growth, with NEVs as the main driver, while the traditional internal combustion engine vehicle market continues to shrink.

⭕[CPCA: NEV Production and Sales This Year Expected to Reach Around 16 Million Units, Generating Over 2 Trillion Yuan in Sales Revenue]The CPCA stated that NEV production and sales this year are expected to reach around 16 million units, generating over 2 trillion yuan in sales revenue. As 2025 marks the final year of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy, it is estimated that approximately 200 billion yuan in tax exemption benefits can be released under the current new car sales market size. Combined, this amounts to a scale of over 400 billion yuan. Compared to the 5 trillion yuan in automobile sales revenue, the 400 billion yuan subsidy is historically significant and provides unprecedented support for the development of the car market.

⭕[CPCA: Vehicle Scrappage and Renewal This Year Expected to Reach 5 Million Units, Replacing 10 Million Units]The CPCA stated that the 2025 automotive industry policy subsidies and incentives have reached new highs, becoming a key factor in driving overall market prosperity and accelerating the transition of NEV consumption to mass adoption. With the expansion of scrappage policies, vehicle scrappage and renewal this year are expected to reach 5 million units, with scrappage subsidies amounting to approximately 90 billion yuan. Meanwhile, stable and effective replacement policies across regions are expected to replace 10 million units, amounting to nearly 130 billion yuan.

⭕[CPCA: February National Passenger Car Market Retail Sales Reached 1.386 Million Units, Up 26% YoY]According to CPCA data, February national passenger car market retail sales reached 1.386 million units, up 26% YoY.

⭕[Changfeng Steel Quantum Electric Furnace Equipment Scheduled for Operation in Early April]

According to Dujiangyan's announcement, Changfeng Steel currently operates two production lines. The operating line has completed intelligent digital and ultra-low emission upgrades, adding two sets of steel slag rolling and slag processing equipment, successfully meeting the latest national ultra-low emission environmental protection standards.

The other production line, featuring Sichuan's only quantum electric furnace equipment imported from Germany, is more energy-efficient and is scheduled to begin operation in early April.

⭕In 2025, Zenith Steel's 3-2 phase construction material plan for east China offers discounts as follows: rebar at 40% (unchanged from the previous phase), wire rod and coiled rebar at 40% (unchanged from the previous phase). Additionally, for the 3-2 phase, rebar in Guangzhou is at 60%, rebar in Haikou is at 20%, and coiled rebar in Haikou is at 20%.